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Tuesday, 25 August 2009

$1 + $3 + $8 + $20 + $52 = $84

This is a interesting gambling spam which tries to entice you to an online casino called worldelitecasino.net hosted in China.

Subject: Re: yo mate
Date: Tue, August 25, 2009 5:19 pm

yo mate..

ok I`ll give you my trick but if you give it someone else I`ll fuckin kill you :)
you know in roulete you can bet on blacks or reds. If you bet $1 on black and it goes black you win $1 but if it goes red you loose your $1.
So I found a way you win everytime:

bet $1 on black if it goes black you win $1

now again bet $1 on black, if it goes red bet $3 on black, if it goes red again bet $8 on black, if red again bet $20 on black, red again bet $52 on black (always multiple you previous lost bet around 2.5) if now is black you win $52 so you have $104 and you bet:

$1 + $3 + $8 + $20 + $52 = $84 So you just won $20 :)

now when you won you start with $1 on blacks again etc etc. its always bound to go black eventually (it`s 50 / 50) so that way you eventually always win. But there`s a catch. If you win too much (like $800 a day) casino will finally notice something and can ban you. I was banned once on red teaching casino. So don`t be too greedy and don`t win more then $200 a day and you can do it for years. I think bigger casios know that trick so I play for real money on smaller ones, right now I play on elite world casino: www.worldelitecasino.net for more then 3 months, I win $50-$200 a day and my account still works. You`ll find roulette there when you log in go to "specialt games" - "american roulete". And don`t you dare talling about it anyone else, if too many people knows about it casinos will finally found a way to block that trick. If you have any questions just drop me a line here or on skype.

c ya

In brief, the spam is pitching a roulette "system" that guarantees that you will win, and recommends an online casino where you can use it. The target site has an executable called SmartDowload.exe which was written by RealTime Gaming, Inc.

So, in fact the "Casino" doesn't exist - it leads to a legitimate (but potentially unwanted) desktop gambling application, the executable itself looks like part of Realtime Gaming's affiliate program of something (the Download ID is 1273059)

Presumably the spammer gets some payment per signup or something.. and this can actually be a lot of money in some cases.

So.. what about this "system" then? Well, in reality it doesn't work. It's a version of the Martingale System which basically says that you should double your bet each time you lose (in this case double-and-a-bit).. because eventually you will win your money back. That sounds fine in theory, but eventually you either:

  1. Run out of money - because the value increases expontentially, in the example in the spam the next levels to bet would be $130, $325, $813, $2031, $5078, $12,595, $31,738, $79,345, $198,364, $495,910 and then $1,239,776). You will always run out of money before the casino does.
  2. Hit the house limit - most casinos have a limit beyond which you cannot bet, usually a few thousand dollars. So, you'd hit the house limit before the Martingale system ever paid off, even if you did have nearly unlimited funds.
There's a more detailed writeup at Greg Kochanski's blog explaining the maths behind it.

Personally, I think there's only one thing to remember about casinos: the house always wins!

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